Sun, Nov 20, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 317 | 03 | 329 |
| ANA | 05 | 08 | 217 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:15LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 12:21LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Tanner Pearson, Tyler Toffoli · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 13:35LAKJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Alec Martinez · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 3:34ANAAntoine VermetteAssists: Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 8:36ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:41LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:38LAKJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:10LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:10ANAJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:09LAKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:45ANARyan Getzlaf: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:24ANAKevin Bieksa: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:42LAKMatt Greene: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:04ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:30LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:37LAKJordan Nolan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:07LAKDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Setoguchi – Dowd10:04
xG 0.65–0.02 (97%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson10:21
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- King – Nolan – Shore7:31
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Lewis – Purcell – Clifford7:05
xG 0.09–0.43 (18%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez14:13
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort17:20
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Greene – Gravel9:45
xG 0.21–0.47 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Rakell – Kase3:22
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase5:52
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:53
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ritchie4:14
xG 0.12–0.07 (65%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Holzer11:09
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Manson – Lindholm13:47
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Lindholm2:09
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).