Mon, Nov 21, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 213 | 05 | 11 | 327 |
| CBJ | 114 | 09 | 116 | 03 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:00CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Brandon Saad · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:05COLTyson BarrieAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Carl Soderberg · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 9:00COLErik JohnsonAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Fedor Tyutin · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 19:53CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Sam Gagner, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 1:49COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Erik Johnson · Snap, 0.33 xG3–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 1:00CBJAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:28COLTyson Barrie: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Bourque – McLeod – Grigorenko4:23
xG 0.02–0.07 (23%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Duchene – Greer11:22
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Comeau11:12
xG 0.27–0.45 (37%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Martinsen13:04
xG 0.21–1.02 (17%)attempts 9–23goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson16:11
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Zadorov11:19
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie6:07
xG 0.12–0.52 (18%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Saad12:19
xG 0.76–0.20 (79%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson7:08
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Sedlak – Jenner8:31
xG 0.83–0.50 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg5:32
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski20:21
xG 1.52–0.51 (75%)attempts 33–17goals 1–1
- Murray – Nutivaara11:36
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard17:55
xG 0.89–0.82 (52%)attempts 25–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).