Mon, Nov 21, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 19 | 19 | 00 | 229 |
| DAL | 010 | 114 | 17 | 11 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:19DALJamie OleksiakAssists: Patrick Eaves, Jason Spezza · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 17:22MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 1:01DALBrett RitchieAssists: Julius Honka, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 4:01MINErik HaulaAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Jason Pominville · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 1:23DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jordie Benn · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:34MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:34DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:30DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:21DALPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
- P2 16:27DALJordie Benn: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:28MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:14MINZach Parise: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Granlund – Graovac4:32
xG 0.45–0.08 (86%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter10:28
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Staal – Parise – Coyle7:27
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Koivu – Coyle – Graovac7:01
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Folin2:48
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon18:57
xG 1.04–0.96 (52%)attempts 22–29goals 0–1
- Reilly – Dumba5:12
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Eakin – Seguin14:42
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Eaves13:08
xG 1.07–0.68 (61%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Korpikoski – Cracknell – Shore7:50
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Roussel – Ritchie – Faksa9:48
xG 0.40–0.90 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Honka15:26
xG 1.04–0.28 (79%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Benn – Lindell15:28
xG 0.30–0.57 (35%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Oleksiak12:47
xG 0.68–0.97 (41%)attempts 11–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).