Mon, Nov 21, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 018 | 03 | 031 |
| EDM | 213 | 18 | 26 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39EDMOscar KlefbomGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Matt Benning · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 19:26EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 19:52EDMAndrej SekeraAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Drake Caggiula · Snap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 7:17EDMAnton SlepyshevAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.03 xG0–4
- P3 18:35EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.23 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:43CHIMichal Kempny: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:40CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:39EDMMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:52CHIMarcus Kruger: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:45CHIVinnie Hinostroza: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:57EDMAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Schmaltz13:35
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Panik – Hinostroza – Hartman9:59
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Motte6:54
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hossa – Anisimov – Panarin10:59
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Keith14:31
xG 0.64–0.35 (64%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Kempny8:06
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Kempny5:01
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins9:42
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kassian – Slepyshev – Draisaitl9:29
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Pitlick – Caggiula10:06
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi10:14
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell15:12
xG 0.34–0.16 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom15:21
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Benning – Nurse13:43
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).