Tue, Nov 22, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
St. Louis Blues 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 314 | 17 | 428 |
| BOS | 112 | 112 | 017 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:44BOSDavid BackesPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P2 3:23STLJori LehteraAssists: Colton Parayko, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 8:59BOSDominic MooreSHAssists: Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 13:59STLRobert BortuzzoAssists: Patrik Berglund, Colton Parayko · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 16:11STLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 18:44STLJori LehteraENAssists: David Perron, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:04STLVladimir Tarasenko: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:43STLNail Yakupov: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 10:33BOSDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:07STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:20BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Perron – Jaskin6:34
xG 0.50–0.11 (82%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves8:39
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Berglund – Jaskin – Yakupov3:40
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Yakupov – Fabbri4:19
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:37
xG 1.01–0.47 (68%)attempts 19–19goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Parayko12:50
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson13:00
xG 0.18–0.40 (30%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Backes – Krejci – Beleskey11:19
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Nash12:36
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Hayes – Kuraly2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Spooner – Kuraly3:38
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo7:39
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Liles – Morrow13:01
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Liles – McQuaid2:10
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).