Tue, Nov 22, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 4, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 29 | 29 | 423 |
| MTL | 09 | 216 | 114 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:26MTLShea WeberPPAssists: Andrei Markov · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:22OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:39MTLAlexander RadulovAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 15:55OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–2
- P3 2:08MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Shea Weber · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 3:13OTTMark StoneAssists: Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 5:37OTTErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:14OTTMark Borowiecki: Cross checking2 min
- P1 4:14MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:01OTTRyan Dzingel: Interference2 min
- P1 10:18MTLJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:02OTTChris Neil: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:02OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:02MTLAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:02MTLAndrew Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:36OTTMike Hoffman: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 1:58OTTKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:52MTLPaul Byron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:00OTTMax McCormick: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:21OTTChris Neil: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:58OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:10OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:10MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:10MTLMax Pacioretty: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:00OTTDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hoffman – Stone3:46
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Dzingel – Lazar2:16
xG 0.02–0.01 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Lazar5:16
xG 0.05–0.04 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Kelly – McCormick3:58
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson12:05
xG 0.71–0.27 (73%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman5:53
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:13
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Byron – Galchenyuk9:42
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 1–2
- Mitchell – Shaw – Danault5:22
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Terry – Carr6:22
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher9:34
xG 0.20–0.20 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Petry12:31
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Weber – Emelin8:33
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Hanley2:46
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).