Tue, Nov 22, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 113 | 16 | 328 |
| FLA | 014 | 014 | 111 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:11PHIWayne SimmondsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 13:03PHIDale WeisePPGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 7:04PHINick CousinsPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 18:09FLAReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:53PHIMark Streit: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:51PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:07FLAJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:07FLAJonathan Marchessault: Holding2 min
- P2 11:07PHIClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:40PHIRadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:58FLAReilly Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:11PHIChris VandeVelde: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Schenn11:10
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Couturier – Konecny5:05
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Read – Raffl – Bellemare7:46
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Weise – Cousins4:16
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere12:03
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas13:44
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Gudas2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Bjugstad – Malgin8:47
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Smith – Trocheck – Marchessault12:53
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – McKegg – Rau7:18
xG 0.20–0.29 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Jagr – Jokinen – Barkov12:12
xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers14:13
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Kindl – Ekblad13:47
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson15:48
xG 0.35–0.82 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).