Tue, Nov 22, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Islanders 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 210 | 012 | 012 | 01 | 5 | 335 |
| ANA | 112 | 013 | 19 | 07 | 4 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:51NYIAdam PelechAssists: Calvin de Haan, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 16:42NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 9:08ANARickard RakellAssists: Corey Perry, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 2. NYI Andrew Ladd stopped
- 3. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 4. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 5. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
- 6. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 7. ANA Rickard Rakell scored
- 8. NYI John Tavares scored
- 9. ANA Ryan Kesler stopped
- 10. NYI Alan Quine stopped
- 11. ANA Cam Fowler scored
- 12. NYI Ryan Strome scored
- 13. ANA Antoine Vermette stopped
- 14. NYI Casey Cizikas stopped
- 15. ANA Ondrej Kase scored
- 16. NYI Nikolay Kulemin scored
- 17. ANA Hampus Lindholm stopped
- 18. NYI Jason Chimera stopped
- 19. ANA Nick Ritchie stopped
- 20. NYI Anders Lee stopped
- 21. ANA Andrew Cogliano stopped
- 22. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 23. ANA Shea Theodore scored
- 24. NYI Thomas Hickey scored
- 25. ANA Ryan Garbutt stopped
- 26. NYI Johnny Boychuk stopped
- 27. ANA Kevin Bieksa stopped
- 28. NYI Nick Leddy scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:38NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:04NYICalvin de Haan: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:17ANASami Vatanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:09ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:32ANAOndrej Kase: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:32ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:38ANANick Ritchie: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Beauvillier11:41
xG 0.59–0.43 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Chimera – Lee – Quine5:35
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Strome3:40
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Clutterbuck – Cizikas3:32
xG 0.02–0.11 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Leddy13:30
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Hickey14:49
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- de Haan – Pelech14:36
xG 0.34–0.67 (34%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Ritchie – Kase11:11
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell14:59
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Boll – Wagner – Garbutt4:52
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:18
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Fowler3:03
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Theodore2:17
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson2:46
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).