Wed, Nov 23, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
St. Louis Blues 3, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 02 | 18 | 211 | 321 |
| WSH | 16 | 112 | 27 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:28WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 10:12WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 10:48STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 6:31WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 6:53WSHAlex OvechkinGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 18:45STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 19:31STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: David Perron, Jaden Schwartz · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:32STLRobby Fabbri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:09STLJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:16WSHNate Schmidt: Holding2 min
- P1 11:21STLDavid Perron: Interference2 min
- P1 14:12WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:35STLKyle Brodziak: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:56WSHDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:49STLColton Parayko: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:49WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:40WSHAndre Burakovsky: Holding2 min
- P3 17:20WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Jaskin6:07
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Berglund – Perron – Yakupov3:33
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:32
xG 0.01–0.00 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Jaskin2:54
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Parayko12:48
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson12:15
xG 0.07–0.07 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo11:54
xG 0.09–0.51 (14%)attempts 4–16goals 0–3
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky9:31
xG 0.50–0.10 (83%)attempts 15–4goals 3–0
- Williams – Backstrom – Johansson10:23
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Winnik – Eller – Connolly7:27
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Beagle – Wilson – Sanford6:17
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov12:13
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Alzner11:42
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Orpik – Alzner2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).