Wed, Nov 23, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 04 | 17 | 19 | 220 |
| CBJ | 010 | 015 | 09 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:35CGYTroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Kris Versteeg · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 6:25CGYMicheal FerlandPPAssists: Dennis Wideman · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:26CGYKris Versteeg: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:52CBJJack Johnson: Holding2 min
- P2 0:14CGYMatthew Tkachuk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:41CBJLukas Sedlak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:29CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:27CGYMark Giordano: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:07
xG 0.69–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Bennett11:25
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Monahan10:30
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Ferland – Hathaway7:43
xG 0.01–0.35 (4%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton14:54
xG 0.71–0.37 (65%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Engelland – Kulak10:17
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Brodie2:53
xG 0.02–0.00 (92%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Saad – Wennberg13:12
xG 0.49–0.08 (86%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Gagner – Sedlak – Hannikainen5:15
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Dubinsky – Atkinson6:56
xG 0.27–0.26 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Jenner – Karlsson – Anderson6:41
xG 0.12–0.39 (23%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard16:02
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Murray – Nutivaara11:46
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski15:30
xG 0.39–0.94 (30%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).