Wed, Nov 23, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 04 | 15 | 116 |
| MIN | 07 | 19 | 210 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:01MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 11:13MINJonas BrodinPPGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 12:06WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Nic Petan · Snap, 0.60 xG1–2
- P3 19:29MINZach PariseENAssists: Eric Staal, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:56WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:20MINJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:11WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P3 11:00WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:38MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers15:32
xG 0.38–0.08 (82%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Stafford – Lowry – Copp10:42
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Dano7:15
xG 0.02–0.30 (6%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Petan – Tanev – Laine9:50
xG 0.06–0.43 (13%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Trouba19:15
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Stuart – Chiarot8:47
xG 0.03–0.34 (9%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey19:33
xG 0.36–0.92 (28%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Coyle14:38
xG 0.97–0.03 (97%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter11:28
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund5:30
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Koivu – Granlund – Graovac8:13
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon21:25
xG 0.81–0.29 (74%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Brodin – Folin15:04
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba11:28
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).