Wed, Nov 23, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 02 | 222 | 07 | 231 |
| TBL | 112 | 09 | 38 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:57TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 6:06PHIDale WeiseAssists: Chris VandeVelde, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 19:05PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Matt Read, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 13:28TBLAlex KillornAssists: Slater Koekkoek, Vladislav Namestnikov · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 13:40TBLRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:45TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:12TBLNikita Nesterov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:49PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:38PHINick Cousins: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:18PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:24TBLErik Condra: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:39TBLRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:16PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:46PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:04PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Interference2 min
- P3 9:26PHIClaude Giroux: Holding2 min
- P3 15:01TBLRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Weise – Laughton5:10
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Cousins – Konecny7:28
xG 0.13–0.30 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Read – Raffl – Bellemare6:25
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn11:02
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Manning – Gudas10:22
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Streit – Provorov9:59
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere11:35
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Palat – Drouin9:33
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Callahan – Johnson – Point5:38
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Killorn – Kucherov – Namestnikov8:40
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Callahan – Condra – Paquette4:21
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sustr8:12
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Koekkoek5:13
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 3–6goals 2–0
- Garrison – Nesterov3:37
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).