Wed, Nov 23, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 022 | 25 | 235 |
| NSH | 18 | 18 | 35 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:52NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 16:06NSHMike FisherUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 5:32DALPatrick SharpSHAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 6:09NSHRyan JohansenPPGWGAssists: James Neal, Viktor Arvidsson · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 11:09NSHCraig SmithAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 18:44DALBrett RitchieAssists: Antoine Roussel, Radek Faksa · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 19:44NSHJames NealENAssists: Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:22DALAdam Cracknell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:28DALJulius Honka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:49NSHAustin Watson: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:36DALJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min
- P3 4:21DALPatrick Eaves: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:08NSHViktor Arvidsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Ritchie – Faksa8:27
xG 1.07–0.33 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Korpikoski – Cracknell – Shore6:19
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Eaves10:24
xG 0.15–0.11 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin12:41
xG 0.21–0.53 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Lindell10:27
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Lindell – Honka2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Honka13:27
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Wilson – Aberg10:02
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Neal – Johansen – Arvidsson10:41
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons9:40
xG 0.06–0.24 (19%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg7:41
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm15:17
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis15:59
xG 0.42–0.79 (34%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Weber – Irwin10:48
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).