Wed, Nov 23, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New York Islanders 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 07 | 210 | 224 |
| LAK | 112 | 06 | 310 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:34LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Jake Muzzin, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P3 4:27NYIAnders LeeAssists: Travis Hamonic, Alan Quine · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 17:07LAKDwight KingAssists: Trevor Lewis, Derek Forbort · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 17:32LAKDwight KingGWGAssists: Trevor Lewis, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 17:51LAKJake MuzzinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG1–4
- P3 18:08NYIAnders LeeAssists: Jason Chimera, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:19LAKNicholas Shore: Holding2 min
- P1 10:52LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:23NYIAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:06NYINick Leddy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Chimera – Lee – Quine8:57
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 2–1
- Kulemin – Nelson – Strome10:41
xG 0.02–0.51 (3%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Ladd – Cizikas – Prince8:22
xG 0.10–0.67 (13%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Beauvillier13:09
xG 0.24–0.91 (21%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Pelech15:31
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 25–14goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Hickey17:11
xG 0.08–0.70 (10%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Leddy14:52
xG 0.39–1.13 (26%)attempts 11–23goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Lewis – King10:55
xG 0.82–0.19 (81%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Brown – Setoguchi – Dowd10:03
xG 0.74–0.21 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson12:22
xG 0.77–0.37 (68%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Clifford – Nolan2:57
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez15:59
xG 0.87–0.21 (80%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Doughty – Forbort19:44
xG 1.20–0.69 (64%)attempts 26–22goals 1–0
- Greene – Gravel13:08
xG 0.73–0.23 (76%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).