Thu, Nov 24, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 08 | 015 | 132 |
| MTL | 18 | 05 | 19 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:32CARElias LindholmAssists: Victor Rask, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:08MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Charles Hudon, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 0:14MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:23MTLPaul Byron: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:00CARJay McClement: Holding2 min
- P3 3:54CARVictor Rask: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:00MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:22MTLMark Barberio: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom7:41
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho2:48
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm2:10
xG 0.18–0.18 (51%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stempniak – McGinn – Ryan5:56
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce13:47
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk16:28
xG 0.82–0.61 (58%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Tennyson – Hanifin12:03
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:45
xG 0.46–0.47 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Radulov – Byron – Galchenyuk8:36
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Shaw – Hudon8:06
xG 0.34–0.41 (46%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Terry – Danault9:04
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Emelin16:33
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Markov – Petry15:06
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Barberio11:07
xG 0.07–0.80 (8%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).