Thu, Nov 24, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 16 | 07 | 07 | 120 |
| OTT | 010 | 14 | 212 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:49BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Matt Beleskey, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 13:23OTTMark StoneAssists: Mike Hoffman, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 6:28OTTChris WidemanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 10:16OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:55BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:56OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:42BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:42OTTChris Wideman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:09BOSRyan Spooner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Moore – Hayes – Schaller8:39
xG 0.12–0.27 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:36
xG 0.03–0.22 (12%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Spooner – Czarnik7:35
xG 0.07–0.29 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Beleskey12:40
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Liles – McQuaid2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo3:12
xG 0.06–0.09 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Morrow2:23
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hoffman – Stone10:38
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Neil – Kelly – Lazar5:52
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau13:09
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel8:46
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci12:02
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson16:59
xG 0.36–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman8:40
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).