Fri, Nov 25, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 016 | 112 | 236 |
| MIN | 314 | 213 | 19 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 8:09MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Jonas Brodin, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 13:26PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 19:37MINCharlie CoyleGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 15:12MINZach ParisePPAssists: Eric Staal, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 18:40MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jason Zucker, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 5:50PITBryan RustAssists: Scott Wilson, Nick Bonino · Deflected, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 11:25MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jonas Brodin · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:15PITMatt Cullen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:01MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:09MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:05PITIan Cole: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:12PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:28PITMatt Cullen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:21MINMathew Dumba: Holding2 min
- P3 19:34PITPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hagelin – Sheary14:06
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Guentzel12:49
xG 0.78–0.51 (61%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl7:27
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Bonino – Rust – Wilson7:16
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz14:17
xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Letang – Maatta14:41
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Letang – Cole2:18
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter9:47
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Staal – Parise – Coyle10:34
xG 0.81–0.89 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Stewart – Graovac – Mitchell7:52
xG 0.05–0.21 (18%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:54
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon9:28
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Scandella – Brodin4:45
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon3:10
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).