Fri, Nov 25, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 15 | 010 | 113 | 228 |
| SJS | 011 | 27 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 5:09SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Chris Tierney, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 5:43SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Kevin Labanc, Paul Martin · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 19:02NYINick LeddyAssists: John Tavares, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 19:37SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Paul Martin · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:31SJSBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:04NYIJohnny Boychuk: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 14:55NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Clutterbuck – Cizikas10:43
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Beauvillier12:48
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Nelson – Prince9:43
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Chimera – Lee – Quine13:15
xG 0.27–0.77 (26%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- de Haan – Pelech17:38
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Hamonic – Leddy19:11
xG 0.82–0.95 (46%)attempts 20–22goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Hickey15:06
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski14:34
xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Boedker – Nieto – Tierney9:16
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Haley – Wingels – Labanc2:24
xG 0.25–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ward – Couture – Donskoi12:16
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns16:39
xG 0.95–0.53 (64%)attempts 22–17goals 2–0
- Schlemko – Dillon16:19
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun15:08
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).