Fri, Nov 25, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 1, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 012 | 115 | 133 |
| WSH | 113 | 112 | 17 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08WSHDaniel WinnikAssists: Brett Connolly, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 13:25WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 9:58BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Kyle Okposo, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 16:05WSHBrett ConnollyPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:43WSHJustin Williams: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:56BUFMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min
- P2 5:40BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:23BUFTaylor Fedun: Holding2 min
- P2 19:28WSHBrett Connolly: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:34WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:07WSHAndre Burakovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:40BUFSam Reinhart: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – O'Reilly – Reinhart2:59
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Gionta – Kane – Larsson10:51
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Moulson – Grant – Girgensons3:12
xG 0.18–0.43 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Carrier – Reinhart3:23
xG 0.20–0.56 (26%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Franson – McCabe15:49
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Falk – Fedun10:44
xG 0.56–0.92 (38%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen13:13
xG 0.26–1.19 (18%)attempts 10–19goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Backstrom – Johansson11:21
xG 0.89–0.10 (90%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Winnik – Eller – Connolly10:25
xG 0.87–0.21 (81%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Beagle – Wilson – Sanford6:03
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky9:46
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner12:19
xG 1.19–0.26 (82%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Orpik – Chorney11:27
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov16:20
xG 0.62–0.60 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).