Fri, Nov 25, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Calgary Flames 2, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 07 | 19 | 229 |
| BOS | 05 | 011 | 120 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:36CGYSam BennettAssists: Matt Stajan, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 5:55BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Tim Schaller, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 7:05CGYAlex ChiassonGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:18BOSMatt Beleskey: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:40CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P2 15:12CGYTroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:59CGYFreddie Hamilton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:59CGYDeryk Engelland: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:59BOSBrad Marchand: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:59BOSAdam McQuaid: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:39CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:56BOSJimmy Hayes: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:56CGYGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:56CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:56BOSJimmy Hayes: Interference2 min
- P3 9:28CGYDennis Wideman: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:25
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Ferland – Monahan12:12
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Bennett9:28
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Hamilton – Shinkaruk – Hathaway5:12
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton14:23
xG 0.83–0.30 (73%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie17:43
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Engelland – Kulak11:52
xG 0.35–0.73 (32%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBeleskey – Nash – Czarnik2:56
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Hayes – Spooner3:58
xG 0.12–0.01 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak3:15
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Beleskey5:47
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug13:00
xG 0.71–0.15 (82%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo2:49
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Morrow12:52
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).