Fri, Nov 25, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 210 | 113 | 215 | 538 |
| TBL | 04 | 29 | 115 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Brandon Saad, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 8:35CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 8:33TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 9:02CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 18:28TBLJason GarrisonAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 3:37TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 4:34CBJBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 11:13CBJCam AtkinsonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:36TBLLuke Witkowski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:55TBLOndrej Palat: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:54TBLAndrej Sustr: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:54CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:15TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:15CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:16CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Karlsson – Anderson8:33
xG 0.87–0.57 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Gagner – Sedlak – Hannikainen6:52
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg11:41
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner14:06
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara10:08
xG 0.87–0.46 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard15:09
xG 0.63–0.38 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Murray – Jones2:16
xG 0.04–0.07 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov8:24
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Boyle – Killorn – Paquette2:03
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Callahan – Paquette4:39
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Point3:01
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr2:30
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Garrison – Witkowski3:43
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Hedman – Koekkoek3:43
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).