Fri, Nov 25, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 05 | 014 | 131 |
| DAL | 010 | 211 | 07 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01VANJayson MegnaAssists: Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 9:32DALRadek FaksaAssists: Esa Lindell, Brett Ritchie · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 15:58DALEsa LindellGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:12VANLuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:12DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:54VANMichael Chaput: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:15DALPatrick Eaves: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:03DALPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Sutter15:10
xG 0.73–0.48 (60%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Skille – LaBate – Gaunce4:20
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Burrows – Megna – Horvat12:57
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Chaput – Granlund13:34
xG 0.11–0.54 (17%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Hutton16:17
xG 0.77–0.22 (78%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Tryamkin12:23
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Edler – Stecher17:49
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 21–18goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Cracknell – Shore2:09
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Roussel – Ritchie – Faksa10:55
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Korpikoski2:43
xG 0.04–0.01 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Cracknell – Shore3:17
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell16:18
xG 0.72–0.64 (53%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Lindell2:40
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Oleksiak15:42
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 14–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).