Sat, Nov 26, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 08 | 016 | 133 |
| OTT | 011 | 16 | 17 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:24CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–0
- P2 6:15OTTDion PhaneufAssists: Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 16:28OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 12:15CARJeff Skinner: Interference2 min
- P3 19:55OTTDion Phaneuf: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom10:00
xG 0.82–0.21 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Rask – Teravainen – Lindholm13:31
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Skinner – Aho13:55
xG 0.70–0.75 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Nestrasil – Ryan10:03
xG 0.12–0.50 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce17:50
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Faulk19:54
xG 0.91–0.48 (65%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Tennyson – Hanifin13:24
xG 0.29–1.04 (22%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Kelly – Lazar8:27
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel11:35
xG 0.22–0.30 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau13:34
xG 0.59–0.85 (41%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone11:09
xG 0.23–0.61 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci16:42
xG 1.30–0.95 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Karlsson2:21
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:21
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).