Sat, Nov 26, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 09 | 112 | 04 | 0 | 137 |
| FLA | 16 | 08 | 06 | 03 | 1 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:45FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Shawn Thornton · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 12:50CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Cam Atkinson, Brandon Dubinsky · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Sam Gagner stopped
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 3. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 5. CBJ Alexander Wennberg stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:53FLANick Bjugstad: Interference2 min
- P2 5:14CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:42CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P2 19:07FLAMark Pysyk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Karlsson – Anderson9:32
xG 0.93–0.10 (90%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg12:04
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner12:00
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Gagner – Sedlak – Hannikainen4:26
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard17:24
xG 1.00–0.26 (79%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Murray – Nutivaara10:51
xG 0.70–0.29 (70%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski14:21
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Marchessault – Malgin5:11
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Jokinen – Barkov12:51
xG 0.62–0.58 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Bjugstad – Malgin5:17
xG 0.04–0.05 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Trocheck – Marchessault8:11
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kindl – Ekblad17:41
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson16:24
xG 0.27–0.54 (33%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Yandle – Demers15:24
xG 0.08–1.11 (7%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).