Sat, Nov 26, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 111 | 17 | 04 | 0 | 331 |
| STL | 016 | 112 | 28 | 02 | 1 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:36MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 7:41STLPaul StastnyAssists: David Perron · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 9:43MINErik HaulaAssists: Jason Pominville, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 3:27STLJaden SchwartzAssists: David Perron, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 4:30STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Colton Parayko, Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–3
- P3 18:52MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. STL Robby Fabbri stopped
- 2. MIN Charlie Coyle stopped
- 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 4. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 5. STL Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 6. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 7. STL David Perron scored
- 8. MIN Mikael Granlund stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:06MINMarco Scandella: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:28STLKevin Shattenkirk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:31STLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:15MINMarco Scandella: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund13:26
xG 0.37–0.52 (42%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter12:45
xG 0.64–0.99 (39%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Stewart – Graovac – Mitchell9:12
xG 0.09–0.45 (16%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Coyle12:00
xG 0.17–0.70 (20%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Prosser7:39
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon21:56
xG 0.50–1.05 (32%)attempts 14–22goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba17:22
xG 0.31–1.13 (22%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Perron – Schwartz13:55
xG 0.87–0.19 (82%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri11:51
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves7:31
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Jaskin4:11
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Parayko10:17
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Bortuzzo5:35
xG 0.43–0.09 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:07
xG 0.94–0.62 (60%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).