Sat, Nov 26, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 011 | 18 | 03 | 1 | 331 |
| COL | 07 | 111 | 113 | 04 | 0 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46VANLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Markus Granlund, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 11:15COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Matt Duchene, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 1:26VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 3:56COLJarome IginlaAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 2. VAN Markus Granlund scored
- 3. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 4. VAN Loui Eriksson stopped
- 5. COL Matt Duchene stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:00COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:28VANJoseph LaBate: Holding2 min
- P1 19:16VANTroy Stecher: Holding2 min
- P2 3:01VANJacob Markstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:09COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:09VANJoseph LaBate: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:39COLJohn Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P3 5:39VANNikita Tryamkin: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:39COLCarl Soderberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Megna – Horvat8:30
xG 0.88–0.18 (83%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Sutter13:03
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Skille – LaBate – Gaunce3:20
xG 0.02–0.12 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Chaput – Granlund9:55
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher3:01
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hutton – Tryamkin7:08
xG 0.14–0.07 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Tryamkin9:20
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBourque – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:59
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- McLeod – Colborne – Martinsen2:17
xG 0.04–0.02 (67%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Duchene – Grigorenko9:38
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Comeau – Martinsen2:58
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson13:12
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Zadorov13:10
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Wiercioch – Barrie14:39
xG 0.46–0.84 (35%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).