Sat, Nov 26, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Los Angeles Kings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 14 | 07 | 08 | 00 | 119 |
| LAK | 013 | 111 | 02 | 13 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:21CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Duncan Keith, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 0:57LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Jeff Carter, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 1:06LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:11CHIAndrew Desjardins: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:41CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:12LAKTom Gilbert: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:29LAKJordan Nolan: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:55LAKTom Gilbert: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:59CHIBrent Seabrook: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Hinostroza – Hartman11:39
xG 0.75–0.26 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Kruger – Motte – Rasmussen8:40
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin12:48
xG 0.23–0.57 (29%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Desjardins – Panik – Schmaltz8:08
xG 0.18–1.43 (11%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson4:55
xG 0.77–0.07 (92%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Forsling11:58
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Campbell – Seabrook3:59
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Lewis – King13:30
xG 1.73–0.10 (95%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson11:53
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Brown – Setoguchi – Dowd7:09
xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Nolan – Shore8:33
xG 0.11–0.51 (17%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort16:58
xG 1.71–0.75 (69%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Gravel8:57
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez16:32
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).