Sun, Nov 27, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 09 | 115 | 131 |
| BOS | 06 | 315 | 19 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:24BOSDominic MooreAssists: Colin Miller, Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 12:30BOSDavid BackesPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 17:33BOSJimmy HayesAssists: David Krejci, Tim Schaller · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 9:43BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 17:21TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Nesterov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:15BOSColin Miller: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:18BOSRiley Nash: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:47TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:47TBLNikita Kucherov: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:47BOSTorey Krug: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:47BOSTorey Krug: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:45TBLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Drouin – Point4:03
xG 0.70–0.19 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Drouin3:28
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Palat2:51
xG 0.12–0.07 (61%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Callahan – Condra – Paquette2:47
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr5:27
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sustr11:24
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Koekkoek11:36
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 10–10goals 0–3
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:14
xG 0.49–0.25 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Backes – Krejci – Schaller12:06
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Nash – Czarnik13:08
xG 0.70–0.50 (58%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Moore – Hayes – Spooner9:18
xG 0.25–0.80 (24%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo8:24
xG 0.85–0.55 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Krug9:43
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Miller – Carlo6:30
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).