Sun, Nov 27, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 216 | 07 | 010 | 233 |
| CAR | 09 | 313 | 05 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41FLAJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 9:51FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Deflected, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 5:21CARViktor StalbergAssists: Matt Tennyson, Andrej Nestrasil · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 7:12CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Victor Rask, Michael Leighton · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 8:49CARDerek RyanPPGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:17CARViktor Stalberg: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:42FLAJason Demers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:16CARNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:14CARJoakim Nordstrom: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 0:57FLAJonathan Marchessault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:21CARJeff Skinner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:05FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Marchessault – Barkov2:09
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Bjugstad – Malgin10:23
xG 0.29–0.24 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Jagr – Jokinen – Barkov9:54
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Rau – Griffith6:49
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers15:08
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 23–4goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson14:44
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Kindl – Ekblad15:30
xG 0.70–1.25 (36%)attempts 16–20goals 1–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Rask2:25
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Rask – Lindholm2:09
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Teravainen – Aho4:08
xG 0.14–0.09 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm10:27
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk15:41
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Tennyson – Hanifin11:28
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Slavin – Pesce17:07
xG 0.38–0.67 (36%)attempts 10–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).