Sun, Nov 27, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 3, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 012 | 213 | 332 |
| PHI | 115 | 314 | 114 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42CGYTJ BrodieSHAssists: Mikael Backlund, Sam Bennett · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 17:42PHIMichael RafflAssists: Jakub Voracek, Andrew MacDonald · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 0:52PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 7:20PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Roman Lyubimov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 7:44PHIWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Nick Cousins · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 8:05CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 9:55PHIRoman LyubimovAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Chris VandeVelde · Snap, 0.41 xG2–5
- P3 18:10CGYAlex ChiassonSHAssists: Dougie Hamilton, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.34 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:24CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:56CGYDeryk Engelland: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:45CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:29CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:09PHINick Cousins: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:38CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:38CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:38CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:38PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:38PHIRadko Gudas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:38CGYDennis Wideman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:38CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Cousins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:13
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Bennett10:21
xG 0.32–0.31 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Monahan10:11
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Ferland – Hathaway10:06
xG 0.39–1.63 (19%)attempts 11–17goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Hamilton17:20
xG 0.78–0.99 (44%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
- Engelland – Kulak10:44
xG 0.42–0.79 (35%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Wideman – Brodie13:45
xG 0.31–0.85 (27%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Schenn – Lyubimov9:38
xG 1.46–0.60 (71%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Weise – Read – Bellemare9:16
xG 0.60–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl9:40
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Cousins – Konecny8:11
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Del Zotto14:44
xG 1.24–0.70 (64%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere12:12
xG 0.81–0.31 (72%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Gudas – Provorov16:14
xG 0.97–0.59 (62%)attempts 20–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).