Mon, Nov 28, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Calgary Flames 1, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 04 | 011 | 111 | 00 | 126 |
| NYI | 19 | 010 | 06 | 12 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 5:51CGYSean MonahanAssists: Kris Versteeg, Deryk Engelland · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- OT 1:53NYIThomas HickeyGWGAssists: John Tavares, Shane Prince · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:02NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:32CGYDeryk Engelland: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:09CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:52CGYDeryk Engelland: Elbowing2 min
- P3 15:09CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Brouwer – Monahan4:56
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Ferland – Shinkaruk – Monahan5:08
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Jankowski5:38
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ferland – Jankowski – Shinkaruk3:02
xG 0.02–0.02 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton14:54
xG 0.79–0.30 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie5:03
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Engelland – Jokipakka3:23
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Beauvillier12:20
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Ladd – Clutterbuck – Cizikas9:38
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Nelson – Prince9:17
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Lee – Quine8:41
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy14:17
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Hickey – Hamonic3:15
xG 0.02–0.08 (20%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- de Haan – Pelech7:56
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).