Mon, Nov 28, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 04 | 16 | 29 | 02 | 321 |
| STL | 19 | 112 | 18 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:36STLRobby FabbriAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 4:17STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Patrik Berglund, Colton Parayko · Backhand, 0.35 xG0–2
- P2 16:21DALJamie OleksiakAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 1:47DALJamie BennPPAssists: Julius Honka, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 13:12STLDavid PerronAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:10DALJamie OleksiakAssists: Julius Honka, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 3:24STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Jori Lehtera, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:19DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:52DALEsa Lindell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:45STLDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:29STLJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P3 1:32STLRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:34DALJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:03DALBrett Ritchie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Eaves – Korpikoski2:41
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Eaves – Roussel – Seguin5:28
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Ritchie – Faksa6:10
xG 0.05–0.01 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin4:14
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Oleksiak2:31
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Honka2:44
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Benn – Oleksiak10:26
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri11:30
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:43
xG 0.16–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Berglund – Rattie – Jaskin5:41
xG 0.08–0.02 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Perron – Schwartz13:26
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Parayko12:57
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson11:49
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:24
xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).