Tue, Nov 29, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Montréal Canadiens 1, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 017 | 013 | 110 | 140 |
| ANA | 110 | 121 | 07 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:50ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Sami Vatanen · Tip-in, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 11:56ANACam FowlerGWGAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 18:00MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:36ANANick Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P1 9:39ANACorey Perry: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:57ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:57MTLAndrew Shaw: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 16:04MTLShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:21MTLDaniel Carr: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:57MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:43ANAAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:32MTLAndrew Shaw: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:32MTLAndrew Shaw: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:38ANAAntoine Vermette: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Byron – Galchenyuk11:36
xG 0.66–0.45 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Shaw – Lehkonen10:39
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Danault – Carr7:34
xG 0.20–0.33 (37%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:54
xG 0.52–1.13 (32%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Barberio13:23
xG 1.30–0.36 (78%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Weber – Emelin15:29
xG 0.60–0.58 (51%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Markov – Petry13:29
xG 0.34–1.27 (21%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell14:08
xG 0.89–0.52 (63%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase9:44
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:26
xG 0.95–1.03 (48%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Wagner – Garbutt – Shaw4:45
xG 0.08–0.18 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Fowler12:24
xG 1.29–0.92 (58%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Theodore12:52
xG 0.70–0.47 (60%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm12:20
xG 0.40–0.46 (47%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).