Wed, Nov 30, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 4, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 37 | 09 | 18 | 424 |
| LAK | 07 | 111 | 09 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32SJSKevin LabancAssists: Logan Couture, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 19:05SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P1 19:35SJSRyan CarpenterAssists: Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 3:01LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 18:43SJSLogan CoutureENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:42SJSPaul Martin: Holding2 min
- P2 1:23SJSKevin Labanc: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:12LAKDerek Forbort: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHaley – Carpenter – Labanc3:19
xG 0.14–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski13:53
xG 0.40–0.44 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ward – Couture – Karlsson5:07
xG 0.03–0.15 (15%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Ward – Couture – Labanc4:43
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun16:25
xG 0.69–0.60 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Martin – Burns21:04
xG 1.02–1.16 (47%)attempts 22–19goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Dillon13:04
xG 0.29–0.74 (28%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Pearson12:43
xG 0.76–0.24 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lewis3:10
xG 0.55–0.10 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Setoguchi – Dowd9:03
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- King – Nolan – Shore2:54
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez3:17
xG 0.74–0.17 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty4:16
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez13:15
xG 0.73–0.61 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).