Thu, Dec 1, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 17 | 09 | 02 | 1 | 130 |
| BOS | 010 | 07 | 112 | 06 | 2 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:37CARNoah HanifinPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Derek Ryan · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 19:28BOSDavid BackesAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BOS Ryan Spooner scored
- 2. CAR Jaccob Slavin scored
- 3. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 4. CAR Noah Hanifin stopped
- 5. BOS David Pastrnak scored
- 6. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:07BOSTim Schaller: Interference2 min
- P2 5:19CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:33BOSMatt Beleskey: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- P2 16:39CARJeff Skinner: Interference2 min
- P3 6:46CARLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:53CARViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Teravainen – Aho7:43
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- McClement – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe5:01
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stempniak – McGinn – Ryan4:08
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Teravainen – Aho3:53
xG 0.09–0.02 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTennyson – Hanifin11:05
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk16:55
xG 0.32–0.69 (32%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce17:46
xG 0.42–0.84 (33%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBeleskey – Nash – Czarnik10:14
xG 0.53–0.19 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Spooner4:19
xG 0.23–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Schaller9:48
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Moore – Hayes – Spooner4:57
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug10:35
xG 0.76–0.22 (78%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug5:03
xG 0.33–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Morrow3:30
xG 0.18–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).