Thu, Dec 1, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 114 | 112 | 09 | 235 |
| PIT | 112 | 213 | 315 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:47PITIan ColeAssists: Phil Kessel, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:25DALDevin ShoreAssists: Patrick Eaves, Stephen Johns · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 7:43PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 11:21DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jason Spezza, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 19:38PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Conor Sheary, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 16:22PITConor ShearyAssists: Sidney Crosby, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 17:14PITEric FehrENAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–5
- P3 17:55PITNick BoninoAssists: Scott Wilson, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:52DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:38DALPatrick Eaves: Interference2 min
- P1 7:47PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:44PITTom Kuhnhackl: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:35DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:47DALJordie Benn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:35PITEric Fehr: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:54DALJamie Oleksiak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Eakin – Seguin12:13
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Roussel – Ritchie – Faksa8:46
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Eaves – Korpikoski – Shore2:28
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Eaves9:42
xG 0.27–0.61 (31%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Johns11:33
xG 0.90–0.43 (68%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell12:09
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak4:17
xG 0.15–0.46 (25%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Sheary12:04
xG 1.39–0.44 (76%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Bonino – Rust – Wilson3:31
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin6:07
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hagelin – Rust4:02
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz12:33
xG 1.15–0.49 (70%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:18
xG 0.88–0.47 (65%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Letang – Maatta3:08
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).