Thu, Dec 1, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 214 | 06 | 11 | 332 |
| OTT | 18 | 14 | 09 | 00 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:23OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 1:57OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 16:50PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 17:50PHIMichael Del ZottoAssists: Mark Streit, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 0:40PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:08PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:22OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:22PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:20OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P1 18:44OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:44PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:42OTTMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:20OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
- P3 5:48OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
- P3 6:26PHIBrayden Schenn: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Konecny10:36
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – Cousins – Lyubimov4:26
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl13:11
xG 0.54–0.47 (53%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Weise – Read – Bellemare7:48
xG 0.06–0.01 (88%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere13:56
xG 0.95–0.39 (71%)attempts 24–6goals 0–0
- Gudas – Provorov14:16
xG 0.32–0.09 (79%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Gudas2:09
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hoffman – Stone11:24
xG 0.51–0.06 (89%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Turris – Dzingel2:34
xG 0.01–0.01 (59%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kelly – Smith – Pageau2:11
xG 0.01–0.01 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Turris – Dzingel – Lazar5:10
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Wideman6:02
xG 0.79–0.01 (98%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci4:52
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Wideman2:15
xG 0.03–0.01 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).