Thu, Dec 1, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, St. Louis Blues 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 17 | 212 | 426 |
| STL | 314 | 16 | 16 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 9:37STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 10:39TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Joel Vermin · Slap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 13:17STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Robby Fabbri · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 1:44STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 14:25TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 1:41TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 8:11STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Robby Fabbri, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 11:56TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Joel Vermin · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:52TBLNikita Nesterov: Interference2 min
- P1 8:38TBLBraydon Coburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 12:45TBLOndrej Palat: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:17TBLBrayden Point: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:27TBLTyler Johnson: Kneeing2 min
- P2 18:54TBLAndrej Sustr: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:34STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:59TBLCedric Paquette: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:57STLPaul Stastny: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaquette – Vermin – Drouin11:51
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Boyle – Bournival – Brown3:17
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Point10:24
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:59
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman11:09
xG 0.50–0.18 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Coburn – Nesterov8:45
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Garrison – Sustr7:57
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Perron – Schwartz13:51
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:45
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Berglund – Lehtera – Jaskin10:01
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Steen – Tarasenko – Fabbri9:50
xG 0.55–0.76 (42%)attempts 11–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Parayko13:07
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson10:55
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:42
xG 0.49–0.82 (37%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).