Thu, Dec 1, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 213 | 013 | 111 | 337 |
| COL | 07 | 29 | 04 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:56CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Scott Hartnell, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P1 16:15CBJNick FolignoAssists: Brandon Saad, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 10:38COLBlake ComeauPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Francois Beauchemin · Snap, 0.43 xG2–1
- P2 14:25COLSamuel HenleyAssists: Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 8:57CBJBoone JennerGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:43COLRene Bourque: Holding2 min
- P1 5:55CBJRyan Murray: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:14CBJBoone Jenner: Interference2 min
- P2 5:24COLTyson Barrie: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:24CBJSam Gagner: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:23CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:23COLAndreas Martinsen: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:23CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:19COLSamuel Henley: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:49COLBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:39COLFrancois Beauchemin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner7:59
xG 0.83–0.04 (96%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Gagner – Sedlak – Hannikainen4:43
xG 0.59–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Karlsson – Anderson8:48
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg8:19
xG 0.04–0.23 (15%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard13:58
xG 1.32–0.09 (94%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski12:42
xG 1.38–0.30 (82%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Murray – Nutivaara8:20
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Iginla – Mitchell – Bourque4:02
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Duchene – Grigorenko6:48
xG 0.06–0.17 (27%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bourque – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:09
xG 0.11–0.48 (18%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Wiercioch3:27
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov2:39
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie4:14
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).