Sat, Dec 3, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 0, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 013 | 06 | 024 |
| OTT | 29 | 07 | 05 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:46OTTErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 7:05OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Chris Wideman, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 13:12FLANick Bjugstad: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:05FLAJakub Kindl: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:27FLADenis Malgin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:12FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:13OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:13FLAKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:37OTTMark Stone: Interference2 min
- P2 13:14OTTBuddy Robinson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:37FLAJakub Kindl: Holding2 min
- P3 3:49OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:33FLAShawn Thornton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:07OTTRyan Dzingel: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:34FLAAaron Ekblad: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Smith – Trocheck2:06
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Jagr – Barkov – Malgin2:32
xG 0.04–0.00 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Marchessault – Barkov8:35
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Griffith – Malgin5:57
xG 0.03–0.14 (20%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kindl – Ekblad11:28
xG 0.44–0.67 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Yandle – Demers11:36
xG 0.26–0.53 (32%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson9:48
xG 0.03–0.51 (5%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Dzingel – Pageau5:31
xG 0.76–0.11 (88%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone9:06
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Kelly – Pyatt – Smith8:13
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman6:15
xG 0.70–0.10 (87%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Englund8:09
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci3:21
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).