Sat, Dec 3, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Washington Capitals 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 011 | 112 | 04 | 1 | 135 |
| TBL | 011 | 17 | 010 | 05 | 2 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:38TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 6:24WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: John Carlson, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TBL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 2. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 3. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 4. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 6. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 7. TBL Brian Boyle scored
- 8. WSH Marcus Johansson stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:07WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:58WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:16TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:49WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:45TBLCedric Paquette: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:09TBLValtteri Filppula: Interference2 min
- P3 5:42TBLBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:19TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:26TBLNikita Kucherov: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Burakovsky – Vrana13:19
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Beagle – Connolly – Wilson6:08
xG 0.12–0.29 (30%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Carey – Eller8:17
xG 0.06–0.31 (17%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson10:37
xG 0.12–0.38 (23%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt8:22
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Orpik – Alzner2:29
xG 0.03–0.06 (36%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson3:31
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov11:33
xG 0.33–0.11 (76%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Boyle – Bournival – Namestnikov6:02
xG 0.24–0.12 (68%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Point12:39
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Paquette – Vermin – Drouin8:18
xG 0.02–0.18 (12%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKoekkoek – Sustr12:00
xG 0.29–0.15 (65%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman13:42
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr4:28
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).