Sat, Dec 3, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 15 | 09 | 11 | 323 |
| STL | 07 | 26 | 09 | 00 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:27WPGChris ThorburnSHAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 5:16STLAlexander SteenAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 7:26STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 9:18WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 0:17WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Patrik Laine, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:31WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:06WPGMarko Dano: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:52WPGAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:46WPGJosh Morrissey: Interference2 min
- P2 17:46STLScottie Upshall: Interference2 min
- P3 14:15STLDmitrij Jaskin: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:38WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steen won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Ehlers – Laine11:17
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Dano8:25
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Tanev6:14
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Stafford – Perreault11:22
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey15:39
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien2:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Postma – Chiarot8:50
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Jaskin – Yakupov6:47
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Stastny – Perron – Schwartz11:36
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Tarasenko – Fabbri10:49
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves8:39
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko2:24
xG 0.33–0.06 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko3:44
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo2:21
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).