Sat, Dec 3, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 115 | 111 | 07 | 1 | 240 |
| VAN | 19 | 110 | 04 | 01 | 2 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:03VANDaniel SedinAssists: Luca Sbisa, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:37VANSven BaertschiAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Nikita Tryamkin · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 11:30TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 1:56TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, Martin Marincin · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VAN Markus Granlund scored
- 2. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 3. VAN Bo Horvat scored
- 4. TOR Mitch Marner scored
- 5. VAN Brandon Sutter stopped
- 6. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:49VANLuca Sbisa: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:53VANErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:53TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:57TORLeo Komarov: Interference2 min
- P2 11:16VANJayson Megna: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45VANMichael Chaput: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:13TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:05VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner13:00
xG 1.20–0.37 (76%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews8:35
xG 0.96–0.20 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Soshnikov3:09
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov2:52
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Marincin16:03
xG 1.56–0.32 (83%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev17:02
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Polak – Hunwick9:35
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Baertschi – Horvat11:19
xG 0.50–0.31 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Skille – Gaunce – Megna2:25
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Sutter13:07
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Granlund – Gaunce3:25
xG 0.18–0.75 (19%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sbisa – Stecher16:37
xG 0.79–0.91 (46%)attempts 17–20goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton13:58
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Larsen – Tryamkin9:42
xG 0.34–0.80 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).