Sat, Dec 3, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 111 | 110 | 333 |
| COL | 013 | 05 | 05 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08DALCurtis McKenzieGWGAssists: Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–0
- P2 6:02DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 18:38DALPatrick EavesENAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:16DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:02COLAndreas Martinsen: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:57COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P2 5:06COLRene Bourque: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:51DALJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min
- P2 11:10COLJoe Colborne: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:52DALJamie Benn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:45DALStephen Johns: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – McKenzie – Shore7:47
xG 0.92–0.07 (93%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Spezza – Korpikoski – Ritchie3:09
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Eaves – Roussel – Faksa3:37
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin6:06
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Johns11:18
xG 0.97–0.16 (86%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Honka10:50
xG 0.79–0.68 (53%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Johns2:39
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Grimaldi – Grigorenko4:09
xG 0.66–0.07 (90%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Bourque – MacKinnon – Rantanen5:36
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – MacKinnon – Rantanen3:32
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – Colborne3:29
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Gelinas2:29
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov3:17
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov5:54
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).