Sun, Dec 4, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Carolina Hurricanes 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 012 | 04 | 013 | 01 | 030 |
| CAR | 010 | 08 | 010 | 12 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 1:26CARPhillip Di GiuseppeGWGAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:01TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding2 min
- P1 5:27CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:33CARLee Stempniak: Elbowing2 min
- P1 11:14TBLBraydon Coburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:53TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:42CARAndrej Nestrasil: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:08TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min
- P3 11:37CARNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min
- P3 13:16CARViktor Stalberg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Paquette – Vermin5:03
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Point8:01
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Bournival – Brown5:58
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov10:31
xG 0.16–0.57 (22%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Witkowski9:19
xG 0.73–0.16 (82%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Koekkoek – Sustr10:50
xG 0.35–0.25 (59%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr2:34
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Teravainen – Aho11:10
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom7:02
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Nestrasil – McGinn – Ryan5:41
xG 0.02–0.28 (8%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe8:36
xG 0.27–0.73 (27%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin2:34
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk11:22
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce13:06
xG 0.59–0.47 (55%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).