Sun, Dec 4, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Detroit Red Wings 4, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 111 | 113 | 12 | 434 |
| NYI | 110 | 011 | 214 | 00 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:16NYIAnders LeeAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 12:53DETMike GreenAssists: Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:40DETMike GreenAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 1:52NYIJohnny BoychukUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 13:06DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 15:39NYIJosh BaileyAssists: John Tavares, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 1:02DETDanny DeKeyserGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:05DETDrew Miller: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:05DETSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:05NYITravis Hamonic: Instigator2 min
- P1 9:05NYITravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:05NYITravis Hamonic: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:05DETSteve Ott: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Tatar – Mantha14:39
xG 1.27–0.15 (89%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Glendening – Larkin4:08
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Vanek – Nyquist – Sheahan13:08
xG 0.80–0.98 (45%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Jurco – Glendening8:51
xG 0.14–0.48 (23%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Lashoff12:42
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Ouellet18:43
xG 0.87–1.04 (46%)attempts 16–22goals 1–0
- Green – DeKeyser20:12
xG 1.12–1.40 (44%)attempts 26–24goals 2–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Nelson15:05
xG 0.92–0.63 (59%)attempts 21–17goals 1–2
- Ladd – Prince – Strome15:21
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Chimera – Kulemin – Quine9:53
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Lee11:11
xG 0.60–0.92 (39%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy16:23
xG 0.78–0.29 (73%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Leddy2:15
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Hickey2:11
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).