Sun, Dec 4, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 210 | 18 | 428 |
| NSH | 010 | 210 | 012 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:12PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 3:17NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Austin Watson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:47PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 11:19NSHColin WilsonAssists: Mike Fisher, Craig Smith · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 16:37PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:33PHIChris VandeVeldeENAssists: Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:04PHIWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:09NSHMike Ribeiro: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:59PHIMichael Raffl: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:00NSHKevin Fiala: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:43NSHMike Fisher: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:12NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl11:11
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Weise – Raffl – Bellemare4:02
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Weise – Bellemare2:16
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Konecny9:26
xG 0.13–0.42 (24%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Del Zotto – Manning2:42
xG 0.05–0.04 (52%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Streit – Del Zotto13:13
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere11:38
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Watson – Gaudreau6:44
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Forsberg – Fiala8:47
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Fisher – Wilson – Smith5:25
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Fiala5:33
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Irwin15:50
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Granberg9:01
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm17:45
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 19–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).