Sun, Dec 4, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 3, Calgary Flames 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 17 | 215 | 333 |
| CGY | 17 | 513 | 25 | 825 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sam Bennett, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 2:50ANARyan KeslerAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 11:28CGYTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Kris Versteeg · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 12:20CGYAlex ChiassonAssists: Sam Bennett, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 12:55CGYMatt StajanGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman, Garnet Hathaway · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 16:37CGYSam BennettPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–5
- P2 17:32CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Matt Stajan, Garnet Hathaway · Slap, 0.04 xG1–6
- P3 5:34CGYSean MonahanAssists: Kris Versteeg, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–7
- P3 15:39CGYMark GiordanoSHAssists: Troy Brouwer, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–8
- P3 16:30ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–8
- P3 16:50ANALogan ShawUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG3–8
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:11ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:11CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:28CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:07ANARyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:14CGYSam Bennett: Holding2 min
- P2 10:27ANARyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:00ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:31CGYAlex Chiasson: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:31ANAJoseph Cramarossa: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:55ANAJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:55CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:55CGYGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P3 1:55CGYGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:49CGYSam Bennett: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Cramarossa – Kase6:20
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Ritchie – Kase3:29
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Perry – Cramarossa3:47
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ritchie8:36
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm15:28
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Fowler – Manson2:24
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Vatanen – Fowler9:36
xG 0.42–0.52 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk8:27
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Bennett8:15
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 3–7goals 2–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Monahan9:34
xG 0.14–0.54 (20%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie15:06
xG 0.88–0.32 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
- Giordano – Hamilton12:54
xG 0.80–0.30 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 3–0
- Engelland – Jokipakka14:53
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).