Sun, Dec 4, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 2, Edmonton Oilers 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 011 | 09 | 11 | 233 |
| EDM | 113 | 010 | 04 | 02 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Mark Fayne, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 19:05MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- OT 3:11MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mathew Dumba · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:44EDMZack Kassian: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:44MINChris Stewart: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:35MINJason Pominville: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:25MINKurtis Gabriel: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:25EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:26EDMMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:46MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:37MINNate Prosser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:52EDMMark Letestu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Caggiula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Coyle – Niederreiter5:48
xG 0.87–0.10 (89%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:25
xG 0.87–0.21 (81%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Haula7:14
xG 0.05–0.05 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter4:05
xG 0.11–0.23 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser9:04
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba10:31
xG 0.69–0.25 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:29
xG 0.60–0.42 (59%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Maroon – Kassian7:21
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Slepyshev – Caggiula8:10
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Draisaitl – McDavid12:16
xG 0.41–0.82 (34%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:06
xG 0.11–0.52 (18%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Klefbom11:18
xG 0.71–0.54 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Sekera – Benning13:22
xG 0.46–0.47 (50%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Russell – Larsson16:41
xG 0.36–1.13 (24%)attempts 14–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).