Sun, Dec 4, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Montréal Canadiens 5, Los Angeles Kings 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 211 | 16 | 05 | 3 | 530 |
| LAK | 07 | 412 | 09 | 03 | 2 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Andrei Markov, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 0:56LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 3:10LAKNicholas ShoreAssists: Kyle Clifford, Jordan Nolan · Snap, 0.45 xG1–2
- P2 5:12MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 10:23LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 11:50MTLAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 17:41LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Anze Kopitar, Derek Forbort · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 2:03MTLAndrew ShawAssists: David Desharnais, Greg Pateryn · Backhand, 0.20 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. LAK Marian Gaborik stopped
- 2. MTL Brian Flynn scored
- 3. LAK Jeff Carter scored
- 4. MTL Alexander Radulov scored
- 5. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
- 6. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 7. LAK Tanner Pearson stopped
- 8. MTL Paul Byron scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:12LAKAlec Martinez: Interference2 min
- P1 13:37LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:13MTLTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:25MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:40LAKTyler Toffoli: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:28MTLAndrei Markov: Holding2 min
- P2 10:11MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:40LAKTrevor Lewis: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 3:28LAKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Galchenyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Danault – Flynn3:12
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Gallagher – Shaw3:17
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Flynn3:53
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Lehkonen4:18
xG 0.06–0.07 (49%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Markov – Petry16:09
xG 0.51–0.57 (47%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Weber – Emelin16:28
xG 0.40–0.86 (32%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Barberio9:50
xG 0.42–0.97 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Lewis13:17
xG 1.32–0.13 (91%)attempts 21–7goals 1–1
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore8:39
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson9:55
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Brown – King – Dowd9:22
xG 0.44–0.75 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez16:39
xG 1.07–0.47 (70%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort19:11
xG 1.01–0.74 (58%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Greene – Gravel8:25
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).